Luno is expanding beyond basic crypto trading, starting with the launch of prediction markets in South Africa and Nigeria, two of its key African markets.
The feature, developed in partnership with Limitless, allows users to place short-term bets on whether major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana will rise above or fall below a set price within 24 hours. Users who predict correctly earn a payout, while those who don’t lose their stake.
This launch marks the first step in Luno’s broader push into derivatives and its ambition to become an all-in-one investment platform. It builds on earlier offerings like crypto staking and tokenised US stocks, with plans to introduce more advanced products, such as perpetuals and possibly futures, for Nigerian users later this year.
According to Ayotunde Alabi, the move reflects how customers already interact with crypto markets. Many users closely track price movements and want more structured ways to act on their market views.
Prediction markets, which fall under derivatives, let users speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset. Each trade has a fixed timeframe and outcome: users either win a payout if their prediction is correct or lose their stake if it isn’t.
To participate, users fund a dedicated wallet using USD Coin (USDC), a dollar-pegged stablecoin. The product is available only to verified users, with entry starting at 3 USDC and capped at 10,000 USDC per prediction. Users can exit positions before the 24-hour window closes, but once the market settles, outcomes are final.
Luno says it has built safeguards into the product, including mandatory risk disclosures, limits on exposure, and rules preventing users from betting on both sides of the same market.
The platform operates on a peer-to-peer model, meaning users are trading against each other not against Luno. When one user loses, another gains, while Luno and Limitless earn fees for facilitating the trades. These include a buy fee of between 0.03% and 3%, and a sell fee of up to 1.5%.
The rollout comes at a time when regulators across Africa including in Ghana, Rwanda, Kenya, South Africa, and Nigeria are tightening oversight of digital assets. How prediction markets are classified whether as financial instruments or gaming products remains uncertain and could shape how heavily they are regulated.
In Nigeria, the Lagos State Lotteries and Gaming Authority has already flagged some prediction market platforms as illegal gaming operators, highlighting the regulatory grey area.
For Luno, prediction markets are also a way to deepen engagement with experienced crypto users. The company says it will remain focused on crypto-related predictions, avoiding broader event-based markets seen on global platforms.
Competition is already building. Exchanges like VALR and Roqqu offer derivatives such as futures, while local platforms like Bayse Markets and MevsYou focus on prediction-based trading.
Ultimately, Luno’s new product is both a competitive play and a test. Its success could signal whether African crypto users are ready to move beyond simply buying and holding digital assets into more complex, high-risk trading tools.