As Nigeria’s largest telecom provider, with over 50% market share, MTN plays a pivotal role in connecting millions to mobile and digital services. Its share performance often mirrors investor sentiment toward the broader tech and communications sector. A healthy stock price also affects MTN’s ability to raise capital, upgrade its infrastructure, and expand broadband access.
Investor interest in MTN Nigeria surged in April 2025, driven by renewed optimism that the country’s largest telecom operator could return to profitability in the first quarter of the year. The excitement follows recent 50% tariff increases, measures that analysts believe will significantly improve the company’s margins and begin reflecting in its earnings soon.
On April 15, trading volume in MTN Nigeria shares surpassed 11 million units, its highest single-day volume ever on the Nigerian Exchange. The company is scheduled to release its Q1 2025 financial results on April 29, just one day before its annual general meeting. If the report shows a profit, it would mark MTN’s first positive first quarter since the 2023 naira devaluation, which severely impacted its earnings.
In a bid to strengthen its home broadband offering, MTN recently rebranded its fibre-to-the-home service from MTN Fibre Broadband to FibreX. The move is seen as part of a broader strategy to tap into Nigeria’s growing demand for high-speed internet, a development likely to attract further investor interest.
“Investors are also anticipating the public offer MTN Nigeria announced on April 12,” said Tajudeen Ibrahim, Director of Research and Strategy at Chapel Hill Denham. “Many believe the stock is undervalued, especially given the company’s return to profitability in Q4.”
MTN’s upcoming public share offering aims to reduce MTN Group’s stake in the Nigerian unit from 76% to 65%, allowing more local ownership. However, the timeline for the offering remains uncertain. The rollout is expected only after the company confirms a full return to profitability and resumes dividend payments.
Currently valued at ₦5.1 trillion, MTN Nigeria is the fourth most capitalised company on the Nigerian Exchange and was among the most actively traded stocks in the week of April 24. Its share price climbed to ₦245, reflecting renewed faith in its recovery plan.
By contrast, Airtel Africa, Nigeria’s second-largest telecom operator and the NGX’s most capitalised stock has seen relatively muted trading activity despite similar tariff hikes. From January 17 to April 17, Airtel traded just 336,734 shares across 331 deals, averaging around 5,345 shares daily. Its busiest trading day, April 7, saw just 188,074 shares change hands.
According to Benedict Egwuchukwu, an investment researcher at Afrinvest, the sluggish activity in Airtel Africa shares stems from its low liquidity. “These stocks are hard to come by due to limited demand and supply in the market,” he explained.
The situation is being compounded by Airtel’s ongoing $100 million share buyback program, which reduces the number of publicly available shares, making the stock even scarcer.
In contrast, MTN Nigeria is considered a liquid stock, with a large pool of active traders and consistently high volumes, making it easier for investors to buy and sell without large price fluctuations.
Even with April’s record volumes, MTN still ranked only 44th by trading volume on the NGX. For perspective, Fidelity Bank currently the exchange’s most traded stock saw over 388 million shares traded in a single day. Still, MTN’s rising activity signals a potential turning point as the company aims to recover from two tough financial years.
Between 2023 and 2024, MTN reported steep losses primarily due to currency devaluation. In 2024 alone, the company posted a ₦400.44 billion loss after tax a 192% increase from the previous year driven largely by ₦925 billion in foreign exchange losses. Despite this, revenue grew 36% year-on-year to ₦3.36 trillion, underscoring strong demand for its data and digital services.
MTN ended 2024 on a high note, recording a ₦114.5 billion profit after tax in Q4. That return to profitability has significantly boosted investor morale, suggesting that the worst of its foreign exchange woes may be behind it. Analysts now believe the company is on a more stable path toward sustained earnings growth and a possible resumption of regular dividend payouts.
Still, headwinds remain. Inflation continues to rise, eroding consumer purchasing power. According to the World Bank, nearly 47% of Nigerians live below the national poverty line. For MTN, this economic strain could translate into reduced customer spending, potentially limiting demand for telecom services.
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